Journal article

Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine Increased The Synchronisation Of Global Commodity Prices

Year:

2022

Published in:

Agricultural and Resource Economics
commodity price indices
covariate market shock
food market vulnerability
food system resilience
price comovement
supply chain disruption
war

The Russian Federation’s efforts to expand its regional political influence culminated in launching a full-scale war of aggression on Ukraine on 24 February 2022. As both countries are large exporters of commodities crucial for global food and energy security, the resulting abrupt supply chains disruptions created substantial uncertainty in commodity markets worldwide. This study quantifies to what extent this major shock induced global commodity prices to move more synchronously by gauging their time-varying comovement. Using the concordance index, it analyses the development of 15 key global commodity price indices from January 2010 to July 2022. We find that the supply chains disruptions increased synchronisation of grain, energy and fertiliser prices at the global level in direction and magnitude. Moreover, they resulted in contagion across numerous food and non-food markets, creating a global covariate shock to food and energy security. Notably, the increased synchronisation at broad scale restricts the ability of consumers to mitigate the adverse effects of food and energy price inflation by resorting to inexpensive alternatives. Hence, policymakers must improve the resilience of global food supply chains sustainably such that adverse effects of attaining the Sustainable Development Goals in crises can be minimised.

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2024
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Assessing the Environmental Performance of Agricultural Production Using a Parametric Approach: An Application for Crop Producers in Ukraine

Publisher: Eastern European Economics

Authors: Olha Halytsia, Maria Vrachiolia, Oleg Nivievskyi, Johannes Sauer

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Poverty, Equity And Growth In Developing And Transition Countries: Statistical Methods And Empirical Analysis

Publisher: University of Göttingen

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, Sergiy Zorya

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Ізольованість Аграрної Економічної Науки України: Наслідки Та Шляхи Подолання

Publisher: Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi

2024
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A Multiperiod, Multicommodity, Capacitated International Agricultural Trade Network Equilibrium Model with Applications to Ukraine in Wartime

Publisher: SSRN

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Dana Hassani, Pavlo Martyshev

2016
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Regional Wheat Price Effects Of Extreme Weather Events And Wheat Export Controls In Russia And Ukraine

Publisher: Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Linde Götz, Ivan Djuric

2024
Journal article

An Interim Assessment of the War‑Induced Damages and Losses in Ukraine’s Agriculture

Publisher: the German Association for East European Studies

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Roman Neyter

2023
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Assessing The Role Of Small Farmers And Households In Agriculture And The Rural Economy And Measures To Support Their Sustainable Development

Publisher: SAFPI

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Pavlo Iavorskyi, Oleksandr Donchenko

2017
Conference proceedings

Where Will Demand For Land Come From? Evidence From Farm Models

Publisher: “2017 World Bank Conference On Land And Poverty”

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi

2011
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The Value Of Farmland - Expected Farmland Prices In Ukraine After Lifting The Moratorium On Farmland Sales

Publisher: Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Serhiy Kandul

2022
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Biophysical Impact Of Sunflower Crop Rotation On Agricultural Fields

Publisher: Sustainability

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Nataliia Kussul, Leonid Shumilo, Mykola Lavreniuk, Daniel Ayalew Ali