Working paper

A Multiperiod, Multicommodity, Capacitated International Agricultural Trade Network Equilibrium Model with Applications to Ukraine in Wartime

Year:

2024

Published in:

SSRN
networks
international trade
spatial price equilibrium
agriculture
disruptions
Ukraine

The world is facing immense challenges because of increasing strife and the impacts of climate change with accompanying disasters, both sudden-onset as well as slow-onset ones, which have affected the trade of agricultural commodities needed for food security. In this paper, a multiperiod, multicommodity, international, agricultural trade network equilibrium model is constructed with capacity constraints on the production, transportation, and storage of agricultural commodities. The model allows for multiple routes between supply and demand country markets, different modes of transport, and storage in the producing and consuming countries as well as in the intermediate countries. The generality of the underlying functions, coupled with the capacity constraints, allow for the modeling of competition among agricultural commodities for production, transportation, and storage. The capacity constraints also enable the quantification of various disaster-related disruptions to production, transportation, and storage on the volumes of commodity flows as well as on the prices. A series of numerical examples inspired by the effects of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on agricultural trade is presented, and the results are analyzed to provide insights into food insecurity issues caused by the war.

Other publications by

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2024
Working paper

Assessing the Environmental Performance of Agricultural Production Using a Parametric Approach: An Application for Crop Producers in Ukraine

Publisher: Eastern European Economics

Authors: Olha Halytsia, Maria Vrachiolia, Oleg Nivievskyi, Johannes Sauer

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Journal article

Multicommodity International Agricultural Trade Network Equilibrium: Competition for Limited Production and Transportation Capacity under Disaster Scenarios with Implications for Food Security

Publisher: European Journal of Operational Research

Authors: Anna Nagurney, Dana Hassani, Nivievskyi Oleg, Pavlo Martyshev

2023
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Assessing The Role Of Small Farmers And Households In Agriculture And The Rural Economy And Measures To Support Their Sustainable Development

Publisher: SAFPI

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Pavlo Iavorskyi, Oleksandr Donchenko

2017
Conference proceedings

Where Will Demand For Land Come From? Evidence From Farm Models

Publisher: “2017 World Bank Conference On Land And Poverty”

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi

2011
Working paper

The Value Of Farmland - Expected Farmland Prices In Ukraine After Lifting The Moratorium On Farmland Sales

Publisher: Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Serhiy Kandul

2024
Journal article

An Interim Assessment of the War‑Induced Damages and Losses in Ukraine’s Agriculture

Publisher: the German Association for East European Studies

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Roman Neyter

2010
Working paper

Poverty, Equity And Growth In Developing And Transition Countries: Statistical Methods And Empirical Analysis

Publisher: University of Göttingen

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, Sergiy Zorya

2013
Book Chapter

Ізольованість Аграрної Економічної Науки України: Наслідки Та Шляхи Подолання

Publisher: Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi

2022
Journal article

Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine Increased The Synchronisation Of Global Commodity Prices

Publisher: Agricultural and Resource Economics

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Rico Ihle, Ziv Bar-Nahum, Ofir D. Rubin

2016
Working paper

Regional Wheat Price Effects Of Extreme Weather Events And Wheat Export Controls In Russia And Ukraine

Publisher: Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Linde Götz, Ivan Djuric