Migration Shocks And Voting: Evidence From Ukrainian Migration To Poland

This paper examines the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainian migrants on voting behavior in Poland. In particular, we examine the effects of a conflict-induced labor migration shock and a refugee shock resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, respectively. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that greater exposure to labor migrants reduces support for conservative parties in the short run and subsequently shifts voter preferences toward proredistribution parties. Exposure to labor migrants as well as to refugees leads to a decrease in far-right voting. This effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases due to the escalation of Russia's aggression and the rise of antiUkrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right. The backlash from Polish voters against far-right rhetoric is ten times stronger in areas with stronger exposure to refugees than in areas with greater exposure to labor migrants. Our results are robust to the use of a number of instruments and several sensitivity checks.