The Analysis Of Re-Employment Probabilities For The Unemployed In Ukraine

This paper presents the results of an econometric analysis of the conditional probability of an individual leaving unemployment in Ukraine. Individual-level data are used from the first wave of the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS-2003) to determine factors affecting re-employment probabilities between 1997and 2003 in a competing-risks discrete-time semiparametric framework. We test some basic hypotheses originated from a job search theory on the influence of individual-specific and local labor market characteristics on the hazard of leaving unemployment, as well as our hypothesis about disincentive effect of existence of income from casual activities and subsidiary farming during long non-employment period and no effect of unemployment benefits with respect to transition from unemployment to a job. This paper shows that longterm unemployment remains an important issue in Ukraine even in stronger labor market conditions after economy's reversal, and that re-employment probability is very unevenly distributed among various subgroups of unemployed individuals