Agricultural And Economywide Effects Of The War In Ukraine

The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardize the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of warinduced agricultural export declines under varying success of alternate transport from Ukraine given inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare effects ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly $20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes.